FORECAST TRACKER
Forecasts
English editions of official plans, reported roadmaps, analyst forecasts, and rumors, with later events used for verification.
From claim to outcome
- Claim recordedWho said what, when, and through which source.
- Waiting for evidenceExpected timing and public developments remain visible.
- Outcome assessedLater events support, partly fulfill, refute, or leave it unresolved.
Each English edition identifies its authorship and review state. The Chinese record remains the canonical source while a draft awaits review.
Cyberspace Administration of China
China’s AI anthropomorphic interaction rules take effect on July 15, 2026
The formal regulatory text specifies a July 15, 2026 effective date; this date-certain forecast is retained as a historical record and linked to the fulfilled event through its resolution.
Expected: 2026-07-15
OpenAI
Tibo announces Codex and ChatGPT Work reset landing at 6pm PST
Tibo announced that the reset for Codex and ChatGPT Work will land at 6pm PST on August 30, 2026 (18:00 PDT / August 31 01:00 UTC / 09:00 UTC+8), challenging users to burn usage and discover the latest features.
Expected: 2026-08-30
OpenAI
Tibo confirms the Aug 23 Codex full paid-plan reset was propagated to accounts
Tibo had committed to ship Codex usage fixes and fully reset usage for all paid subscriptions on August 23, 2026. In a 5:46 PM Pacific follow-up quoting that commitment, he said the reset had been propagated to accounts and that some usage fixes had landed. This completed-language update fulfills the earlier commitment.
Expected: 2026-08-23T20:30:00.000Z–2026-08-23T21:30:00.000Z
Tibo announces a global reset for all paid ChatGPT accounts
Tibo announced a global reset for all paid ChatGPT accounts at 10 am Pacific local time on October 2. The original post said “10am PST”; the scheduled time is interpreted as Pacific local time (PDT) on that date. The reset completed around 2 pm, and Tibo confirmed full propagation at 2:18 pm PDT. He also said GPT-6.1 Sol had returned to expected speeds after the load spike during its first two days.
Expected: 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z–2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z
Tuesday Codex banked reset is loading; delivery remains unconfirmed
Tibo earlier promised a Codex reset on Tuesday. On September 22, he said a banked reset was being loaded into all Plus, Pro, and Business accounts. The reset type is now confirmed as banked and rollout has begun. His post does not confirm that every account has received it; the exact delivery time remains unknown.
Expected: 2026-09-22
Tibo: Astra reset due by midnight PT
Tibo says the Astra reset is due by midnight Pacific Time on September 11. He also confirmed fixes for over-triggering skills, a context experiment that caused early stops or replies to older messages, and misconfigured backends that degraded quality. This is an arrival forecast, not a completion notice.
Expected: 2026-09-12T03:20:36.000Z–2026-09-12T07:00:00.000Z
OpenAI
Codex to reset usage limits again on August 10, 2026
The original conditional forecast is retained with its source and linked through the resolution to the completed reset.
Expected: 2026-08-10
Usage-limit reset promised for paid Codex and ChatGPT Work users
Tibo says Codex service is back in action after a brief disruption and promises to reset usage limits for all paid Codex and ChatGPT Work users. The post gives no specific timing or reset type. However, for users who have never used a saved reset, their regular reset is already due in one day. Based on past practice, the reset policy may still be adjusted.
Expected: Date not set
OpenAI
Codex to reset usage limits again at 10M users
This conditional forecast is complete: Codex and ChatGPT Work reached 10M on July 21, 2026, and a paid-user reset was subsequently announced. The original commitment did not include further milestones after 10M.
Expected: Date not set
OpenAI
Codex to reset usage limits again at 9M users
This conditional forecast has been fulfilled; the original forecast and its source are retained and linked to the 9M reset event through the resolution.
Expected: Date not set
OpenAI
Astra daily banked-reset commitment fulfilled
On September 3 at 23:12:09 UTC, Tibo promised one banked reset for every day a paid user lacked Astra access. The first grant was initially expected about three hours later. CodexRunway recorded the first delivery on September 4 at 02:30 UTC, without an X completion post. The daily compensation commitment has now been fulfilled.
Expected: 2026-09-04
Tibo says more Codex resets are coming next week
On September 26, 2026 at 14:41 PT, Tibo told a user that more resets were coming next week. Delivery of a new banked reset was reported on September 29, and Pro 200 transition compensation has also arrived. The signal for further resets remains active at 80/100. The original post did not specify all reset dates, counts, eligible plans, or types, so the commitment is not marked as fully fulfilled. Additional signal: OpenAI reported elevated errors across ChatGPT, Codex, and the API on September 29, followed by recovery. The incident provides context only; the status notice does not promise an additional reset or announce its delivery time.
Expected: Date not set